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I suck at timing the market but I thought today was as good as any to pick up some sales. RIG and NOV still look like a pretty good deal (thanks, Steve) JNJ and CPRT both looked good, and BRK/B actually looks really good. Berk is one I think I'll just file and forget anyway.

Spend all day at the track not following the market and I make back a bit of yesterday's loss.

Its a tough market, but I think there is opportunity out there. RIG and NOV are decade long plays. So, if you can get any retracement, its a opp to jump on the slow train.

I've been following and recommending EWZ since it was in the 30's... Its 88 now. Only I've never pulled the trigger myself. PAIN. Those are long term freight trains, that sometimes you have to dive into.


I made money on NOV but sold in the 60's to fund a really big options play on SLB. I hit a double on that risky play. But then watched as NOV just keep climbing. I was frustrated waiting for a pullback. Finally I jumped back in at 82. It quickly went back over 88. The earnign outlook there look great even if oil pullsback 35%. It'll drop of course, if that happens and it will be a buying opp. Earnings should seriously outperform the market for 10 years or more. I like those plays. Especially in a tough market or a tough economy.

Steve Ekstrand wrote:Its a tough market, but I think there is opportunity out there.

Will somebody pull the ripcord on the parachute please!!! Because the ground is coming faster than the speed of sound! (166 point drop) An ugly start to the 3rd quarter of 2008

the ground is coming faster than the speed of sound!

I don't think it has sunk in that with oil at over $140/b and still climbing, there's some real pain on the way unless something changes fast. And the higher it goes, the less likely it will ever fall back that much.

I owned BRK/B in 2006. Bought at just about $12k and it rose to $13.5k before I sold, reluctantly, six mos. later.

Tom Tanquary wrote:

the ground is coming faster than the speed of sound!

I don't think it has sunk in that with oil at over $140/b and still climbing, there's some real pain on the way unless something changes fast. And the higher it goes, the less likely it will ever fall back that much.

Looks like the pain is here and here to stay! 236 point drop (2%) on the DJIA today. It's brutal out there.

The end of "speculation"?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/23/ ... index.html

Look Schilling.....MORE guba' mint intervention

Giovanni Jaramillo wrote:The end of "speculation"?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/23/ ... index.html

Look Schilling.....MORE guba' mint intervention

Looks like a dead end.

Four letters....

D W S N




EDIT ADD: Up 21% today on a down 200 day
Above $70 I sell off shares. In the $50's I back up the truck. I've played that strategy several times. It basically accounts for all the profit I have in my portfolio YTD, It hasn't been a great year, but DWSN has kept me beating the market.

And its one of the few specific stocks I discussed with Craig Angel. He knew the company well having worked in the geophysical data sector. That makes it kinda of fun to have in the portfolio still working.

Steve Ekstrand wrote:Four letters....

D W S N




EDIT ADD: Up 21% today on a down 200 day

Damn it's been up and down in big chunks for the past week! Up 300, down 200, down 150, up 400. I'm getting dizzy. My 401k is now hurting badly.

And this is why it was up:

MIDLAND, Texas, July 31 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Dawson Geophysical Company (Nasdaq: DWSN) today reported revenues of $84,568,000 for the quarter ending June 30, 2008, the Company's third fiscal quarter of 2008, compared to $68,637,000 for the same quarter in fiscal 2007, an increase of 23 percent.

Net income for the third quarter of fiscal 2008 was $9,707,000, compared to $7,561,000 in the same quarter of fiscal 2007, an increase of 28 percent. Earnings per share for the third quarter of fiscal 2008 were $1.27 per share, compared to $0.99 per share in the same quarter of fiscal 2007.

Bob Beamesderfer wrote:And this is why it was up:

I meant the DJIA

Giovanni Jaramillo wrote:

Bob Beamesderfer wrote:And this is why it was up:

I meant the DJIA

I was responding to Steve.

The stock market isn't much fun to follow in 2008. Overall I guess I'm doing well relative to the indexes, but gesh, its a much more stressful ride and I have lots of friends getting hammered on. I don't like watching that kind of pain.

I could have made more money (or lost big) this year, but after last years huge run I've been more conservative given the difficult climate. DWSN is pretty much the only stock I've made big moves in and out on gaming moves. Last year I had several aggressive "gambles" making quick turnarounds. And a whole bunch of quick options plays. But I've only bought like two options this year compared to maybe 30 last year.

Bob Beamesderfer wrote:

Giovanni Jaramillo wrote:

Bob Beamesderfer wrote:And this is why it was up:

I meant the DJIA

I was responding to Steve.

DOH!

DWSN is an amazingly simple black box (money machine). Even an engineer could figure out a good estimate for its earnings. But the clueless small regional analysts who follow the stock are too lazy to spend a hour a quarter to give a valid number. Its really rather shocking. What it really gets down to is understanding the timing of the company and its upgrades, contracts, and deployments. Its such a small company that that is really easy. In general, they are in a high growth trend because the technology has improved and the price of oil has made the use of infield geophysical data acq cost effective. They are increasing crews and upgrading the equipment they already have. But there are costs and training time involved. The revenues lag the implementation obviously. Their misses have been situations where the costs of expansion are booked, but there hasn't been sufficient time for increased revenue flow. Just timing. How hard is that to do the homework on, yet they ALWAYS miss it. Again based on timing I knew this quarter would be very good, so as it dropped to the 50's I started buying back the shares I sold in the 70's.

Its rare to find a company that is so linear in its overall trend but choppy qtr to qtr. Mainly its a function of small size and limited number of crews that are booked solid. The rev increases are predictable steps. The cost increases are predictable steps. The stairs don't line up perfectly and the qtr cuts in every 3 months so to the outsider the company looks insanely unpredictable. Not the case at all.

Steve Ekstrand wrote:

Its rare to find a company that is so linear in its overall trend but choppy qtr to qtr. Mainly its a function of small size and limited number of crews that are booked solid. The rev increases are predictable steps. The cost increases are predictable steps. The stairs don't line up perfectly and the qtr cuts in every 3 months so to the outsider the company looks insanely unpredictable. Not the case at all.

It's good to be able to read the technical charts and see through the clutter.

Why are we BAILING these fools out???

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/08/markets ... 2008090816

Giovanni Jaramillo wrote:Why are we BAILING these fools out???

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/08/markets ... 2008090816

Because if either one failed, damage to the financial markets here and around the world would take years to repair.

Only $407 billion in the hole. Peanuts!! :mrt:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/09/news/ec ... tm?cnn=yes

Enron for ex-Congressmen. I think bunches should go to jail.

John Coffey wrote:Enron for ex-Congressmen. I think bunches should go to jail.

You have to wonder just why an organization that has the kind of sweet setup Fannie and Freddie have why they need so many lobbyists.

John Coffey wrote:Enron for ex-Congressmen. I think bunches should go to jail.

Long overdue.

What do you call a 747 full of politicians at the bottom of the ocean?

On topic: I hope my recent plays work out. Things are sure sketchy now and it's tough to bet on stuff I know is a winner.

Larry Andrews wrote:

John Coffey wrote:Enron for ex-Congressmen. I think bunches should go to jail.

Long overdue.

What do you call a 747 full of politicians at the bottom of the ocean?

On topic: I hope my recent plays work out. Things are sure sketchy now and it's tough to bet on stuff I know is a winner.

Change we can believe in?

Giovanni Jaramillo wrote:Only $407 billion in the hole. Peanuts!! :mrt:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/09/news/ec ... tm?cnn=yes

But the combined debt is $5 trillion. More than any other country in the world except for ... U.S. Banks that hold bonds in Fannie or Freddie would fail without the interest payments, bringing a complete freeze to credit markets here and overseas. Another Hobson's choice.