The Emporer Has No Clothes
Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2008 9:53 am
POTOMAC WATCH
By KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL
June 6, 2008;
Barack Obama has finally secured the Democratic Party's nomination. The question now for voters, and for Republican John McCain, is what have we learned over the past 16 months?
We've learned Mr. Obama is a gifted politician, with a knack for reading the public mood. His success came from tapping in, early, to the country's deep dissatisfaction with the political status quo, and orienting his campaign around a "change" message. Other presidential aspirants – Republican and Democrat – ultimately adopted a version of this tune. But they couldn't match what was by then a well-rehearsed Obama number.
AP
To GOP strategists' frustration, focus groups still show that many people don't know what Mr. Obama proposes policy-wise – and don't care. They are drawn to his promise to move past political business as usual. John "My Friends" McCain won't be able to match his rival's verbal mojo. He's instead going to have to counter with a compelling theme of his own. First, he'll have to find one.
We've learned Mr. Obama's political skills include an ability to adapt. When the controversy over Rev. Jeremiah Wright broke, Mr. Obama hemmed and hawed and guaranteed a long discussion. Last week, when another controversy burbled over another spiritual mentor, Father Michael Pfleger, the Democrat quickly condemned the priest, and for good measure quit his Chicago church.
We've learned Mr. Obama has crafted a new form of organization and fund raising, allowing him to outmaneuver and outspend Hillary Clinton. It's unclear how this machinery, which helped him particularly in grassroots caucuses, will translate into a general election. But he's already building on his infrastructure in key states as Mr. McCain ramps up his campaign.
This ought to have the GOP worried. Yet consider what else we've discovered.
We've learned Mr. Obama was so good at his message that we still don't know much about the man. It was March before the press excavated his longtime pastor, and only last week when it dug up Father Pfleger. Their ugly black-vs.-white preaching, deeply at odds with the candidate's transracial message, has left some voters wondering if Mr. Obama shares these views. It's left others suspicious he allied himself to these powerbrokers for Chicago political gain, but has now cynically thrown them over. Mr. Obama created these question marks for himself, and they're not going away before November. Mr. McCain need only watch.
We've learned that the Obama campaign's main message still has no clothes. The senator has had nearly a year-and-a-half to explain how his new brand of politics and bipartisanship would work; the optimists among us are still waiting. Quizzed on how he'd reach across the aisle, Mr. Obama likes to mention that he might, maybe, perhaps, possibly, if caught on a good day, negotiate on "merit pay" for teachers. That ought to soothe a fractured American soul. The Clinton campaign never hit him on this, since Mrs. Clinton herself had no pretenses toward bipartisanship. But if Republicans can't figure out a way to capitalize on this gap between the spin and substance, they'll deserve backrow seats at his inauguration.
We've learned Mr. Obama has a shifting definition of reform. He deplored big money in elections, but is now sitting on big money and backing out of a pledge to accept public financing. He rails against special interests, but supports bloated farm bills while he does union bidding on trade. One of Mr. McCain's strengths is his reputation for bucking interest groups; this is an opening.
We've learned that on domestic policy, Mr. Obama is as liberal as any Democratic nominee. But he's also a decent populist. He'll raise taxes, but promises to give back to middle-class voters. He'd like government-run health-care, but for now promises simply to help pay soaring private doctor's bills. He'll punish companies that take part in the global economy, but reward those who stay at home.
These "buts" make it harder for the GOP to pigeonhole Mr. Obama. Mr. McCain will also have a tough job explaining why his more purist conservative views – lower taxes for all, lower health-care costs for all, more trade – are better.
We've learned Mr. Obama's weak spot is, as expected, national security. His backpedaling on which dictators he'd engage is one example. His attacks on Mr. McCain for being inflexible on diplomacy, even as he inflexibly calls for troop withdrawals – no matter how great the Iraq success – is becoming another.
There is still one thing we don't know: whether Mr. Obama can take a hit. For all the primary bitterness, Mrs. Clinton worried (at least a little) that she'd offend Obama voters and so kept the gloves on. The Republicans will show no such restraint. Explosive as this primary has been, the summer will bring the real fireworks.
Write to kim@wsj.com
By KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL
June 6, 2008;
Barack Obama has finally secured the Democratic Party's nomination. The question now for voters, and for Republican John McCain, is what have we learned over the past 16 months?
We've learned Mr. Obama is a gifted politician, with a knack for reading the public mood. His success came from tapping in, early, to the country's deep dissatisfaction with the political status quo, and orienting his campaign around a "change" message. Other presidential aspirants – Republican and Democrat – ultimately adopted a version of this tune. But they couldn't match what was by then a well-rehearsed Obama number.
AP
To GOP strategists' frustration, focus groups still show that many people don't know what Mr. Obama proposes policy-wise – and don't care. They are drawn to his promise to move past political business as usual. John "My Friends" McCain won't be able to match his rival's verbal mojo. He's instead going to have to counter with a compelling theme of his own. First, he'll have to find one.
We've learned Mr. Obama's political skills include an ability to adapt. When the controversy over Rev. Jeremiah Wright broke, Mr. Obama hemmed and hawed and guaranteed a long discussion. Last week, when another controversy burbled over another spiritual mentor, Father Michael Pfleger, the Democrat quickly condemned the priest, and for good measure quit his Chicago church.
We've learned Mr. Obama has crafted a new form of organization and fund raising, allowing him to outmaneuver and outspend Hillary Clinton. It's unclear how this machinery, which helped him particularly in grassroots caucuses, will translate into a general election. But he's already building on his infrastructure in key states as Mr. McCain ramps up his campaign.
This ought to have the GOP worried. Yet consider what else we've discovered.
We've learned Mr. Obama was so good at his message that we still don't know much about the man. It was March before the press excavated his longtime pastor, and only last week when it dug up Father Pfleger. Their ugly black-vs.-white preaching, deeply at odds with the candidate's transracial message, has left some voters wondering if Mr. Obama shares these views. It's left others suspicious he allied himself to these powerbrokers for Chicago political gain, but has now cynically thrown them over. Mr. Obama created these question marks for himself, and they're not going away before November. Mr. McCain need only watch.
We've learned that the Obama campaign's main message still has no clothes. The senator has had nearly a year-and-a-half to explain how his new brand of politics and bipartisanship would work; the optimists among us are still waiting. Quizzed on how he'd reach across the aisle, Mr. Obama likes to mention that he might, maybe, perhaps, possibly, if caught on a good day, negotiate on "merit pay" for teachers. That ought to soothe a fractured American soul. The Clinton campaign never hit him on this, since Mrs. Clinton herself had no pretenses toward bipartisanship. But if Republicans can't figure out a way to capitalize on this gap between the spin and substance, they'll deserve backrow seats at his inauguration.
We've learned Mr. Obama has a shifting definition of reform. He deplored big money in elections, but is now sitting on big money and backing out of a pledge to accept public financing. He rails against special interests, but supports bloated farm bills while he does union bidding on trade. One of Mr. McCain's strengths is his reputation for bucking interest groups; this is an opening.
We've learned that on domestic policy, Mr. Obama is as liberal as any Democratic nominee. But he's also a decent populist. He'll raise taxes, but promises to give back to middle-class voters. He'd like government-run health-care, but for now promises simply to help pay soaring private doctor's bills. He'll punish companies that take part in the global economy, but reward those who stay at home.
These "buts" make it harder for the GOP to pigeonhole Mr. Obama. Mr. McCain will also have a tough job explaining why his more purist conservative views – lower taxes for all, lower health-care costs for all, more trade – are better.
We've learned Mr. Obama's weak spot is, as expected, national security. His backpedaling on which dictators he'd engage is one example. His attacks on Mr. McCain for being inflexible on diplomacy, even as he inflexibly calls for troop withdrawals – no matter how great the Iraq success – is becoming another.
There is still one thing we don't know: whether Mr. Obama can take a hit. For all the primary bitterness, Mrs. Clinton worried (at least a little) that she'd offend Obama voters and so kept the gloves on. The Republicans will show no such restraint. Explosive as this primary has been, the summer will bring the real fireworks.
Write to kim@wsj.com
On the other hand, maybe it's not meant to be serious! 
