Who needs banks....

[Steve Ekstrand]

Looking for a minimum 300 point drop today with the market opening in 8 minutes.... Would not be shocked at all to see 500+ drop. Often when "everybody knows" the market is going to move one way it surprises. Everybody is probably right today.

BAC taking an enormous hit for rescuing Merrill. Just like countrywide its probably a good deal for BofA in the long run. But investors don't want to be holding certain bags. BAC down 18% pre-market.

Lehman closing the doors. AIG is in massive trouble.

The impression that Wall Street and the FED have lost control of the beast is very real.

[Bob Beamesderfer]

Down 309 almost right away.

[Bob Beamesderfer]

Market Indexes
* New - Real Time Quote
Chg Chg% Value
Morningstar -68 -2.2 3,010
DJIA -296 -2.6 11,126
Nasdaq* -29 -1.3 2,232
S&P 500* -26 -2.1 1,226
Russell -12 -1.6

Not much decline on a percentage basis.

[Steve Ekstrand]

I was figuring 3%+ and S&P is 2.2. So far pretty calm. Still 5 hours to go.

[Giovanni Jaramillo]

So are we back to the days of put our money under out mattresses?? Jesus the banks are outta control. Makes the S&L scandals look like a cakewalk. Currently the DJIA is down 2.37%. Luckily I rolled over my 401k into an IRA and picked some "foolish" mutual funds but even those are getting hammered. Oh well. Just gotta know when to hold 'em.

[Bob Beamesderfer]

Find a bank that isn't long on mortgage back securities. Goldman Sachs looks pretty smart these days having shorted.

[Giovanni Jaramillo]

HOLY sh#$ BATMAN!!!!

504.48 POINT DROP IN THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE!!!

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/15/markets ... tm?cnn=yes

[Bob Beamesderfer]

4.4% decline. Big deal.

[Giovanni Jaramillo]

4.4% decline. Big deal.

Non-chalantly? Or a REALLY big deal? What's a big deal to you Bob? 10%

[Larry Andrews]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;)

Don't panic. Yet.

Edit: I know it's a repeat cut-paste. But it's a goodie. WRT the effects of the death of the Home Equity Credit bubble...

The plastic surgeons are worth a salute. As we usher out the heloc era and look back at at the boats, cars and homes that will be taken back by the banks, only the enhancements made by these dedicated professionals will remain as a reminder of a bygone era.

[Bob Beamesderfer]

4.4% decline. Big deal.

Non-chalantly? Or a REALLY big deal? What's a big deal to you Bob? 10%

10% is a correction. We haven't seen a real crash in a long time. Partly because of the circuit-breakers instituted by the market.

There was a so-called mini-crash in '97:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_27 ... mini-crash

And the last big one, Black Monday in '87:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

[Steve Ekstrand]

On a valuation based there are some really cheap stocks out there. Assuming of course that we don't enter into a worldwide deep depression. The valuations on NOV and FWLT seem to be saying that all their contracts will be cancelled and nobody will every build or buy another oil rig or do another infrastructure project again. RIG is priced like its 1981 again and all off shore drilling wil cease. DWSN is priced like exploration is over. And PWR seems to say that wind power is gone for good.

GS is priced like its going the way of Lehman. I'd love to get my hands on some of the money we have locked up in probate to put to work right now in some mid to long term plays. A lot of piano players being locked up right now.

[John Coffey]

IMHO, we're looking at two years of slow or no growth before this shakes out across the western world. The Fed had to jump in and save Bear Stearns because the larger private institutions were not ready to absorb the derivatives loss. The Fed gave them 6 months to get ready and now its time to pay the price of 20 years of artificially low interest rates. Look for AIG, WaMu, and some others to fail before all is said and done. There are some good assets in the debris and Barclays appears to have made a good move to get the good parts of Lehman. BofA also got a smoking deal with Merrill. The larger banks will come out very well while the smaller investment banks that basically lost their minds on risk are Dead Men Walking.

Look for an interest rate reduction soon for Q4 and then expect a steady round of interest rate hikes from mid-2009 on. That's about when the bottom will be and we might actually see negative growth (what's defined as a recession) for Q4 this year and Q1 next year. The remainder of 2009 and the first half of 2010 will see slow growth and by the the end of 2010 we should see growth back up to 3% per quarter, which is normal and sustainable without inflation.

Here's some good short term financial advice:

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budget ... the-Crisis" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Larry Andrews]

Woohoo. SNDK FTW.

That'll cover the loss of interest from having the broker move my $ out of money market and into passbook. Bleedin bastiges.

[Giovanni Jaramillo]

4.4% decline. Big deal.

Non-chalantly? Or a REALLY big deal? What's a big deal to you Bob? 10%

10% is a correction. We haven't seen a real crash in a long time. Partly because of the circuit-breakers instituted by the market.

There was a so-called mini-crash in '97:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_27 ... mini-crash

And the last big one, Black Monday in '87:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

Okay is it a big deal now Bob?? Another 300 point drop. Man it is getting UGLY out there. BLOOD in the streets.

[Bob Beamesderfer]

Okay is it a big deal now Bob?? Another 300 point drop. Man it is getting UGLY out there. BLOOD in the streets.

It's getting there. Directionless yesterday, but back on the slide today. All we need now is another six-figure job loss report.

[John Coffey]

Another Fed Bailout in the making:

http://www.theonion.com/content/video/e ... _anti_bush" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Bob Beamesderfer]

Another Fed Bailout in the making:

http://www.theonion.com/content/video/e ... _anti_bush" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"products for marginally politically active liberals to throw away their money on."

[Giovanni Jaramillo]

Correction...450 points today coupled with 500 on Monday. Talk about World War III

[Steve Collins]

Thank goodness the feds can just step in and socialize the affected industries. At least we'll have stability. I just hope there won't be some unforseen consequence to this down the road...

[Jeff Shyu]

for some reason, this reminds me of the line from Anchorman, after the royal rumble:

Ron: Boy, that escalated quickly. I mean that really got out of hand fast!
Brian: It jumped up a notch.
Ron: It did, didn't it?
Brick: Yea, I stabbed a man in the heart.
Ron: I saw that! Brick killed a guy. Did you throw a trident?
Brick: Yea, there were horses and a man on fire and I killed a guy with a trident.
Ron: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safe house or a relative close by because you're probably wanted for murder.

well, at least the first few lines..

[Larry Andrews]

Lit-uh bayt uf uh dead cat bounce tuhday?

[Larry Andrews]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122186674316558873.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We're totally screwed. If Rupert will allow this to be printed - it's over.

[Bob Beamesderfer]

What do you mean if he allows it?

It's just as printed online as it is in tomorrow's Journal.

[Larry Andrews]

Bob - it should be patently obvious that Rupert's minions excercise editorial control over the content in their publications to ensure that all is 'on message'. That article is decidedly 'off message' WRT to 'the economy is fundamentally sound' talking point. Now...

The New York Times reports this evening that "foreign banks, which were initially excluded from the [Wall Street bailout] plan, lobbied successfully over the weekend to be able to sell the toxic American mortgage debt owned by their American units to the Treasury, getting the same treatment as United States banks."

The Times further reports that two of the biggest foreign banks in need of such relief are Barclays and UBS. In fact, my understanding is that UBS is more on the line here than any other foreign bank.

John McCain's top economics advisor, who is widely believed to be his choice for Treasury Secretary, should he win in November, is former Sen. Phil Gramm.

Gramm is both vice chairman of UBS's US division and a lobbyist for UBS.

If UBS successfully lobbied over the weekend to get in on the bailout, what was Gramm's role in the lobbying?

I'm guessing that this is acceptable to everyone?